How to improve standard load profiles: Updating, regionalization and smart meter data

Abstract

Currently, most distribution system operators in Germany estimate non-real-time metered consumption profiles based on “Standard Load Profiles” developed in the late 1990s by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries. However, as both consumption behavior and consumer structure change over time, their predictive power may have deteriorated. In addition, they do not account for regional differences within Germany. Therefore, we compared their forecasting accuracy with two newly developed alternative standard load profiles, differentiating between households and commercial enterprises. We calculated the new profiles based on regional, more up-to-date aggregated consumption data and a limited set of smart meter data. Furthermore, we varied the number of seasons and day types included in the profiles. A comparison of our new load profiles with the existing Standard Load Profiles revealed significant improvements in forecasting accuracy. Improvements are mainly resulting from improved input data (regional and more recent data set), but the utilization of smart meter data as well as variations in day types and seasons also reduced forecast errors.