How to identify and interpret weak signals of change in the forest bioeconomy

Abstract

Weak signals, the first signs of a potentially emerging issue that could disrupt current trends and megatrends, are hidden among disconnected pieces of information. Analyzing weak signals can help decision makers generate preparedness and a rapid-response capacity for possible systemic changes in the forest bioeconomy, where weak signals have not been studied extensively. This exploratory study sought to understand how to identify and interpret weak signals of change that may have an impact on the forest bioeconomy. An international panel of experts in the forest bioeconomy and in foresight provided their views through a two-stage Real-Time Delphi method which utilized the multiple rounds of traditional Delphi and the instantaneous feedback of the Real-Time Delphi method. This study introduces four conceptual frameworks to use when searching for weak signals: Internal/external operating environment, the Multi-level perspective, the Three Horizons Framework, and Complexity theory. These conceptual frameworks were applied in the analysis of collected data with the aim of developing the theory and practice on how to identify and interpret weak signals. According to the results, observations beyond the traditional dominating operating environment and a combination of observations from various sources could help to identify weak signals that may affect the forest bioeconomy. The Real-Time Delphi insights suggest that weak signal analysis becomes stronger via collaboration and interaction between futures specialists and forest bioeconomy experts.