How to "Geoscope" Transitions to Sustainable Water Use

Abstract

In the process of finding paths to sustainable development, humankind faces the challenge of better understanding the interactions between human society and the natural environment. Although the definition and ultimate goal of sustainable development is still not generally agreed upon, in many cases we are able to determine what is clearly not sustainable: The extent of global energy consumption, the current degree of biodiversity loss, or the consumption of freshwater beyond natural recharge levels. In order to define possible paths to sustainability, a structured analysis of the related transition processes is required. This analysis deals specifically with the time dimension, that is, the connections and switching points between different phases of transition. Even if sustainable development is a long-term process, starting points of the required transitions can already be identified and should be studied, as the path dependence of our current actions indicates significant impacts in the medium and long run. The future remains uncertain and even the most sophisticated computer models will never provide exact predictions of future developments. Therefore, in order to decide on appropriate future steps, the human society has to continuously observe the present and learn from the past. This iterative learning-bydoing approach requires well-founded observation systems and adequate analysis tools, through which transition processes can be identified as early as possible. A systematic approach to this kind of analysis may address the following issues, which were raised during a recent workshop on the emergence of a sustainability science : ■Where and how do transitions start? Are there triggers to be observed which should not be ignored? ■Do transitions follow underlying rules and patterns which can be identified and which recur over time or under different circumstances? ■Are there typical barriers to transitions preventing or delaying required changes? ■What kind of actions and interventions can be taken to direct, accelerate or slow down transitional changes in order to achieve social objectives? The observation and analysis of transitions is of special importance in the case of creeping environmental problems which emerge only slowly but with a strong long-term impact. There are a number of critical areas in which transitions to more sustainable nature-society interactions are required, like global water use, food security, the global energy system, biodiversity loss, public health, and human lifestyles. Martens and Rotmans provide a conceptual framework for describing and analysing transitions by distinguishing phases of predevelopment, take-off, acceleration, and stabilisation .