How to Forecast Cruise Ship Arrivals for a New Port-of-Call Destination

Abstract

The cruise industry in recent years has experienced significant growth and has become one of the most dynamic segments of the transportation and tourism sector. Related research is mainly market oriented and focuses on operations and revenue optimization management; ports are addressed mainly in the context of revenues generated by a cruise ship visit. Trends are in favor of new and diversified itineraries, and opportunities are being sought for several unvisited ports to become new destinations for the cruise market. A methodology was proposed for estimating the number of cruise ship visits that could be attracted to a port aiming at becoming a destination of existing cruise line connections within the wider geographical area. The proposed framework estimated a cruise attractiveness index as a measure of a port's attractiveness for becoming a port of call. The framework then identified three scenarios under which the port could be integrated into the cruise line network. The result was a forecast of future cruise ship arrivals at the port. The methodology was applied to the Adriatic and Ionian Seas of the Mediterranean region, major cruise destinations. The cruise industry can use this decision-making tool to expand its destinations, and port authorities and other local agents can use it to attract tourism capital.