How to facilitate the implementation of the renewable portfolio standard? A system dynamics model analysis

Abstract

The renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a national policy tool to encourage the progress of renewable energy (RE), aids in the optimization of China's energy structure and the achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality objectives. However, each province's implementation impact varies during the policy-implementation process, and various factors influence the implementation impact. So, this paper constructs a multi-market coupled system dynamics model of the power market, consumption above quota (CAQ) market, and tradeable green certificate (TGC) market to analyze the inner action mechanism of RE consumption and provide policy planning for effectively promoting RPS implementation. The results show that (1) Appropriately raising the RPS quota goal or accelerating the development of RE technology or raising the benchmark price of TGC all promote the growth of installed RE capacity and RE development. (2) Increasing RPS quota targets or fines can stimulate market consumption demand while achieving responsibility for consumption, effectively promoting CAQ and TGC market transactions and further promoting RE consumption. (3) Simultaneously raising the RE quota targets, accelerating the development of RE technologies, and standardizing the management of TGC's benchmark prices would be more conducive to promoting the consumption of RE electricity and advancing the development of RE.