How to Escape the Middle-Income Trap: Lessons for the ODA Policy

Abstract

Despite the effort of official development assistance (ODA) since 1948, most of the countries experience decreasing marginal returns in the economic growth, resulting in middle-income trap. In the perspective that there must be an alternative ODA policy target to neo-classical economic theory, this study examines the configurations of economic and institutional factors that help the escape of middle-income trap. Previous middle-income trap studies investigated the slowdown of economic growth as a consequence of low total factor productivity and showed limited interest on institutional factors. Moreover, such studies based on regression could not draw the synergy of various factors. This study employed fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to identify the combinations of economic and institutional factors that improve or reduce the possibility of the escape. The results suggest that while the overwhelming importance of total factor productivity still remains, configuration of institutional factors such as rule of law, property rights, anti-corruption, democratic institution is necessary to achieve the full escape of middle-income trap. The findings imply the need for not only financial aid but also institutional support for the developing countries to overcome the middle-income trap.