How to efficiently promote distributed energy resources in China: Using a nonparametric econometric method

Abstract

Most of the existing related studies use linear methods to investigate distributed energy resources, ignoring the objectively existing nonlinear relationships. This article makes improvement and uses a nonparametric additive regression model to explore China’s distributed energy resources. Estimated results show that technological progress exerts an inverted “U-shaped” nonlinear effect on distributed energy resources, due to the phased changes in R&D expenditures. Energy consumption structure also has an inverted U-shaped impact, which main reason is the changes in natural gas and renewable energy consumption. On the contrary, international oil prices have a positive U-shaped impact on distributed energy resources, because international oil prices are gradually increasing over time. Foreign oil dependence has an N-shaped nonlinear impact, which is mainly due to the changes in oil imports at different stages. The relationship between urbanization and distributed energy resources also presents an N-shaped pattern. This is mainly due to the periodic changes in the growth rate of the number of residents using natural gas. The research results can provide empirical support for the government to formulate targeted distributed energy policies at different stages.