How to Be Certain: Using Known Relations and Trust Discount to Determine Confidence About the Degree of Uncertainty

Abstract

Ensuring certainty in the rapidly evolving digital twin environments amidst inherent uncertainty is paramount in decision-making for critical engineering systems. This paper presents a novel approach for quantifying and tracking confidence levels within a network of sensors and structural models, specifically addressing uncertainty arising from faulty sensors. By leveraging known relations and implementing a trust discount mechanism, our methodology offers a fundamental framework for navigating in the presence of uncertainties. A quasi-real-time case study on a cantilever beam model is simulated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach. We showcase the ability of our method to accurately assess and adapt to varying levels of uncertainty introduced by faulty sensors. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating trust dynamics and established relationships within digital twin environments to achieve improved certainty despite imperfect data. This research contributes to the theoretical underpinnings of digital twin technology and offers practical insights for its application across diverse domains.