How to balance China’s sustainable development goals through industrial restructuring: a multi-regional input–output optimization of the employment–energy–water–emissions nexus

Abstract

To effectively manage economic transition and pursue sustainable development, the Chinese government has promulgated a series of policies in the 13th Five Year (2016–2020) Plan (FYP), covering social security, economic growth, energy transition, resource conservation, and environmental protection. To balance the various 13th FYP policy targets, we propose a multi-objective optimization model based on multi-regional input–output analysis. The model integrates the management of employment, energy consumption, water use, carbon emissions, and pollutant emissions by determining a policy-dominated industrial restructuring pathway that would best achieve consistency in sustainable development policies, adaptation to the national industrial development trend, and regional equity among China’s provinces. Synergies and trade-offs among various policies are also discussed. Our optimization results show that an energy-consumption-dominated industrial restructuring pathway is the best solution, as it would satisfy various sustainable targets, facilitate (restrain) development of high-value-added (high-energy-consumption and high-emissions) sectors, as well as improve regional equity. Therefore, to realize sustainability, the energy policy should be prioritized when formulating an industrial restructuring pathway. Applying such a multi-objective optimization model provides policymakers with a comprehensive approach to support sustainable development policies.