Abstract
Objectives: Science of surge is one of most important topics in the realm of disaster preparedness. Since 2006, after Academic Emergency Medicine (AEM) Consensus Conference, few articles with quantitative data address decision making in surge capacity. The aim of this article is looking forward to the facts about mathematical modeling and proposes real modeling in decision making to have better outcome. Methods: Literature Research was performed on database for the last ten years (2007-2017). Articles with mathematical modeling were separated and classified based on the usage of them in the field. Results: All current mathematical studies compared based on pre-hospital and hospital setting and flexibility in change of global level of care in time. Integrated model of sigmoid curve and HASC (Hospital Acute Care Surge Capacity) with name B-H integrated modeling in two-hour interval proposed. Conclusion: This study shows dynamic process of disaster planning based on outcome and reality. The proposed model makes surge capacity more predictable and adjustable.
Highlights
This study shows dynamic process of disaster planning based on outcome and reality
After detailed review of each framework of mathematical modeling, this idea raised how previous authors used each modeling in each scenario
Surge capacity is defined in sigmoid shaped curve based on global level of care
Summary
In 2006, Academic Emergency Medicine (AEM) published an important topic on the “Science of Surge” [5], summarizing the proceedings of the AEM consensus conference on the same subject [6]. Almost after ten years from this consensus conference, No identified articles concentrated on determining key decision-makers [6] [7]; rather, the articles we detected to assess decision response efficacy in general procedures in terms of hospital and pre-hospital setting. As the first objective the review in this article describes the quantitative researches in literature with regard to decision making in command-control section and surge capacity in disaster. Second objective is looking forward the usage of each mathematical modeling in terms of control of surge capacity, distribution of patients between centers and propose new modeling for command-control section to have better outcome based on the current findings
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