How the USA can feasibly cut methane emissions 30% by 2030: anaerobic digestion of organic waste and various measures in oil and gas production

Abstract

AbstractThe USA has committed to cutting its emissions of methane, an extremely potent greenhouse gas, by at least 30% by 2030 (‘30 × 30’). This is part of the Global Methane Pledge, signed by 155 countries, to keep global warming within 1.5 °C and thereby to forestall the disastrous effects of ‘runaway climate change’. It will be a major challenge for the USA to reach 30 × 30 and there is no consensus on how to do so. This paper provides a concrete, data‐driven roadmap to indicate how to reach 30 × 30 feasibly, focusing on two enormous sources of methane emissions: organic waste and oil and gas production. It calculates that building approximately 4700 anaerobic digesters (ADs) to process food waste and animal manure would cost about $74.2 billion in capital expenditure (capex) and cut 13.6% of total US methane emissions per year. On average, each project would take roughly 2–6 years to build. Of the various methane mitigation measures analyzed in the oil and gas sectors, the most impactful would be full compliance with the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) revised New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for oil and gas production by 2029. This would cut 17.5% of total US methane emissions annually, at a cumulative capex of $20.7 billion from 2024 to 2029. Together, the 13.6% cut from food waste and manure ADs and the 17.5% cut from full NSPS compliance would amount to a 31.5% reduction, exceeding the 30 × 30 goal. Greater clarity from the federal government on funding eligibility and additional incentives would accelerate the buildout of ADs.