How the Dunning-Kruger Effect Impairs Professional Judgement in High-risk Professions

Abstract

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias whereby people with limited expertise in a given area overestimate their own competence and subsequently make poor decisions. In this paper, we review the bias in high-risk professions, within which overestimations of self-efficacy can lead to harmful and even fatal consequences. We explore the bias's effect on students (in medicine and aviation) whose inexperience assigns them a higher disposition to unmerited confidence. Moreover, we address the bias's effect in criminal investigations and emergency situations. This review finds that Dunning's dual burden account partnered with a self-serving bias is the best explanation for the Dunning-Kruger effect. The cognitive bias is ubiquitous and leads to insupportable degradations in professional performance. The bias was prevalent among medical and aviation students and also adversely affected the criminal investigation process: investigators ignored a self-evaluation process needed to improve interrogation skills. The principal correctives to the cognitive bias (Rahmani, 2020) are twofold. Firstly, management needs to be aware of the effect and understand that subordinates' projected self-confidence does not necessarily correlate to capability. Secondly, an organizational structure incorporating continual constructive criticism and evaluation from numerous sources is essential. Supervisors should not rely solely on self-assessment and should remember that self-doubt is critical to improvement.