How the DOHA Round Could Support the African Industry?

Abstract

This study provides a quantitative evaluation of the Doha Round in terms of the market access for industrial products and the possible consequences of the trade liberalization process. It analyzes the impact of the reforms put forward by the July Package concluded in Geneva. The tariff reduction scenarios under review fit in with the commitments undertaken in the July Package. All four scenarios reviewed are based on a Girard formula. The first, third and fourth scenarios are ambitious, whereas the second is more conservative. Scenarios 1, 3 and 4 differ in the way they factor in special and differential (S&D) treatment. In terms of impact, the simulations show that a liberalization scenario based on an ambitious, non-linear Girard formula would be a less desirable alternative for Africa. It would allow for increases in the welfare and production of the African countries but would not boost African exports.