Abstract
Research background: The 2020 pandemic has proven to be stressful for regional tax systems. However, these systems reacted differently to lockdown and a decline in business activity, which was associated with both their structures and the specifics of their development.
 Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to assess the impact of the 2020 pandemic on tax revenues of Russian regions, as well as to analyze the factors contributing to the resilience of regional tax systems to epidemiological crises.
 Methods: The study is based on monthly data from the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation on total tax revenues in 83 Russian regions for 2013?2020. For data up to March 2020, we construct stationary time series and plotted ARiMA regressions. Based on them, we forecast tax revenues for the period from April to December 2020, if there were no pandemic. The impact of the pandemic is calculated as the deviation of actual tax revenue from the forecast for the corresponding 9 months.
 Findings & value added: We find that the impact of the pandemic on tax revenues varies over time and space. The crisis hit the fiscal system most negatively in the first three full months of the lockdown (April?June 2020). Some mining regions of the Urals, Western and Eastern Siberia, specializing in the extraction of oil and gas, as well as non-ferrous metals, turned out to be the most vulnerable to the pandemic. The most resistant to it are the central and southern regions of the European part of Russia. Calculation of Pearson's correlations shows that the greatest drop in tax revenues occur in regions with a larger share of the mining industry in gross value added and MET in tax revenues, with a higher GRP per capita and an increased level of general economic instability. The smallest decline in tax revenue, or even its growth, is observed in regions with a larger share of personal income tax and property tax in tax revenues, a higher share of trade and processing industries, social sphere and public administration in gross value added, a higher degree of economic diversification and a larger share of small business in total turnover. The obtained results are applicable to manage the resilience of tax systems to epidemiological crises.
Highlights
The 2020 pandemic triggered a global economic crisis
In the Results section, we present the calculated indicators and disclose the impact of regional factors on change in tax revenues of Russian regions during the 2020 pandemic
Using the methodology presented in Data and Methods, we built ARiMA models for stationary time series describing the fluctuations in tax revenues in 83 Russian regions for January 2013–March 2020
Summary
The 2020 pandemic triggered a global economic crisis. the diverse response of countries and regions to this crisis is associated with a number of reasons: the uneven spread and depth of coronavirus infection, the different severity of the restrictions imposed and the level of institutional support for businesses and households, as well as the structural parameters and characteristics of specific economies.The impact of the pandemic on economic development is especially interesting to study on the data of territorial entities developing in a similar institutional environment. The diverse response of countries and regions to this crisis is associated with a number of reasons: the uneven spread and depth of coronavirus infection, the different severity of the restrictions imposed and the level of institutional support for businesses and households, as well as the structural parameters and characteristics of specific economies. In Russia, the predominance of federal rules ensures the unity of institutional environment of its regions. In the context of the 2020 pandemic, the federal center provided unequal financial support to the regions and expanded their rights in establishing their own rules for dealing with the crisis. We could expect different resilience of Russian regions to the crisis and the depth of the pandemic recession in them
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