Abstract
Previous research on the causes of domestic terrorism has tended to focus on domestic determinants. Although this approach can be helpful to understand many causes of terrorism, it implicitly disregards how the tactical choices made by similar nonstate actors elsewhere influence a group’s decision to resort to terrorist tactics. This study argues that the adoption of terrorism among ethnic and ethnoreligious groups results from a process of conditional emulation. Groups are more likely to emulate the terrorist choice of others with whom they are connected by shared political grievances and spatial networks. The theory is tested on a new and original group-level data set of ethnic and ethnoreligious terrorism (1970 to 2009) using geospatial analysis and spatial econometric models. The results provide strong support for the hypothesized mechanism leading to the diffusion of terrorism and suggest that emulation—more than domestic and contextual factors—substantially influences dissidents’ tactic choice.
Highlights
Previous research on the causes of domestic terrorism has tended to focus on domestic determinants
Why has terrorism become a dominant tactic among some groups and not others? To what extent are the Paris and Brussels attacks illustrative of a broader phenomenon, whereby a group’s choice to adopt terrorism is influenced by the tactical choices of similar groups elsewhere?
This article shows the importance of considering interdependence between terrorist organizations and strategic emulation as a crucial mechanism leading to the adoption of terrorist tactics
Summary
Previous research on the causes of domestic terrorism has tended to focus on domestic determinants This approach can be helpful to understand many causes of terrorism, it implicitly disregards how the tactical choices made by similar nonstate actors elsewhere influence a group’s decision to resort to terrorist tactics. Quantitative studies of domestic terrorism typically focus on the attributes of states where terrorism emerges This approach does not explain why countries that are similar in many aspects (e.g., regime type, institutions, economic wealth, instability) experience very different levels of terrorism by ethnic and ethnoreligious groups, or why such terrorism has become so widespread. I present a novel argument focusing on domestic terrorism as the product of a diffusion process whereby groups observe and emulate the tactical choice of others whom they perceive as similar to them and as an example for their own behavior. Together, shared grievances and direct ties between potential adopters and transmitters determine the optimal conditions for the emulation of terrorism
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