How temporary disruption of metro service influence metro commuters’ mode shifts during the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from Tianjin, China

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, the commuting behavior of urban residents has been profoundly influenced. However, little research has focused on commuting travel changes in the aftermath of metro disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A face-to-face intercept survey was conducted at the metro stations that have been closed to reveal the mode preferences of metro commuters. The latent class analysis and multinominal logit model were used to assess the heterogeneity in metro commuters’ travel behavior and examine the determinants that influence commuters’ mode shifts response to the temporary metro disruption, respectively. Results show that metro commuters who have chosen other transportation modes during metro system disruption can be classified into three groups, “conservative commuters”, “neutral commuters” and “dauntless commuters”. Metro commuters are most likely to choose cars (including private cars, taxis, and ride-hailing), followed by active modes and other unclosed public transport. In the “conservative commuters” group, the more family members the respondents have, the less likely they are to use other unclosed public transport. In the “neutral commuters” group, compared to high-income individuals, low-income commuters are more inclined to use active modes and work-from-home. In the “dauntless commuters” group, the higher the level of education of respondents, the more they are inclined to use active mode and car. Research findings can help the government develop comprehensive policies to deal with disruptions in the metro system, arising not only from epidemics similar to COVID-19 but also from a range of other circumstances.