How standard are standardized drought indices? Uncertainty contributions for the SPI & SPEI case

Abstract

<p><span lang="en-US">Standardized drought indices such as SPI are frequently used around the world to assess drought severity across a continent or a larger region covering different meteorological regimes. But how standard are the standardized indices? In this paper we quantify the uncertainty of SPI and SPEI based on an Austrian data set to shed light on what are the main sources of uncertainty in the study area. Here we analyze the uncertainty contributions by a linear mixed model that employs a restrictive maximum likelihood estimator in order to produce unbiased variance and covariance components. Five factors that either defy the control of the analyst (record length, observation period), or need to be subjectively decided during the steps of the calculation (choice of the distribution, parameter estimation method, and GOF-test of the fitted distribution) are considered. The results show that, overall, the choice of the distribution and the observational window are the most important sources of uncertainty. We quantify the relative uncertainty contributions in greater detail in order to give guidance how to make estimates most accurate for a given data set. We finally analyze the total uncertainty of SPI and SPEI to shed light on our main question whether the indices are skillful enough to provide a quantification of atmospheric drought that is standardized enough to allow the intended comparisons across various data situations and meteorological regimes. </span></p>