Abstract
Many factors play a role in outcomes of an emerging highly contagious disease such as COVID-19. Identification and better understanding of these factors are critical in planning and implementation of effective response strategies during such public health crises. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of factors related to social distancing, human mobility, enforcement strategies, hospital capacity, and testing capacity on COVID-19 outcomes within counties located in District of Columbia as well as the states of Maryland and Virginia. Longitudinal data have been used in the analysis to model county-level COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. These data include big location-based service data, which were collected from anonymized mobile devices and characterize various social distancing and human mobility measures within the study area during the pandemic. The results provide empirical evidence that lower rates of COVID-19 infection and mortality are linked with increased levels of social distancing and reduced levels of travel-particularly by public transit modes. Other preventive strategies and polices also prove to be influential in COVID-19 outcomes. Most notably, lower COVID-19 infection and mortality rates are linked with stricter enforcement policies and more severe penalties for violating stay-at-home orders. Further, policies that allow gradual relaxation of social distancing measures and travel restrictions as well as those requiring usage of a face mask are related to lower rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths. Additionally, increased access to ventilators and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, which represent hospital capacity, are linked with lower COVID-19 mortality rates. On the other hand, gaps in testing capacity are related to higher rates of COVID-19 infection. The results also provide empirical evidence for reports suggesting that certain minority groups such as African Americans and Hispanics are disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Highlights
BackgroundThe outbreak of a respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has plagued the world since December 2019
The results show that higher percentages of African American or Hispanic population within the county are linked with higher daily rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases and COVID-19–related deaths within the county
Understanding the factors that play a role in the outcomes of a highly contagious disease and accurately predicting those outcomes is critical for the containment of COVID-19 and any other future contagion
Summary
The outbreak of a respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has plagued the world since December 2019. As a growing number of countries reported confirmed cases, the illness became known as the COVID-19 disease throughout the world. By March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic [2] due to the disease reaching various countries in various continents. On January 21, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed the first case of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S [3]. This first confirmed case was a resident of the state of Washington who had recently traveled to Wuhan, China. As of January 10, 2021, a total of 22,139,598 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 372,552 related deaths have been reported in the U.S [4]
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