Abstract
The increase in births within cohabitation in the United States and across Europe suggests that cohabitation and marriage have become more similar with respect to childbearing. However, little is known about additional childbearing after first birth. Using harmonized union and fertility histories from surveys in 15 countries, this study examines second conception risks leading to a live birth for women who have given birth within a union. Results show that women who continue to cohabit after birth have significantly lower second conception risks than married women in all countries except those in Eastern Europe, even when controlling for union duration, union dissolution, age at first birth, and education. Pooled models indicate that differences in the second conception risks by union type between Eastern and Western Europe are significant. Pooled models including an indicator for the diffusion of cohabitation show that when first births within cohabitation are rare, cohabiting women have significantly lower second conception risks than married women. As first births within cohabitation increase, differences in second conception risks for cohabiting and married women narrow. But as the percent increases further, the differentials increase again, suggesting that cohabitation and marriage are not becoming equivalent settings for additional childbearing. However, I also find that in all countries except Estonia, women who marry after first birth have second conception risks similar to couples married at first birth, indicating that the sequence of marriage and childbearing does not matter to fertility as much as the act of marrying itself.
Highlights
The increasing percent of births within cohabitation across almost all of Europe and the United States indicates that cohabitation is becoming more common as a setting for childbearing (Kiernan 2004; Perelli-Harris et al 2010, 2012, Kennedy and Bumpass 2008)
The results are robust when controlling for union disruption; a competing risk analysis distinguishing between unions that dissolved and remained intact shows that cohabitors who stay in a union have lower conception risks than married women who stay in a union
The results suggest that cohabiting mothers are different from married mothers, perhaps due to different fertility preferences as posited by Second Demographic Transition theory (Lesthaeghe 2010), or other
Summary
The increasing percent of births within cohabitation across almost all of Europe and the United States indicates that cohabitation is becoming more common as a setting for childbearing (Kiernan 2004; Perelli-Harris et al 2010, 2012, Kennedy and Bumpass 2008). Researchers have posited that having children within cohabitation is a sign that cohabitation has taken on many of the functions of marriage (Smock 2000; Seltzer 2000; Raley 2001), reducing the salience of the institution of marriage (Cherlin 2004) It is still unclear how similar these two types of unions are when they involve continued childbearing. The increase in first births within cohabitation suggests that cohabitation and marriage may be becoming more similar, cohabitors’ second birth risks may differ substantially from those of married couples indicating that fundamental differences remain between the two types of unions. This study investigates how second birth risks differ between married and cohabiting parents across Europe and in the United States. By pooling the data and including diffusion indicators, we can better understand cross-national variation in second births by union type
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