How significant a role can China’s forest sector play in decarbonizing its economy?

Abstract

ABSTRACT To assess the potential role of China’s forest sector in achieving its goals of carbon (C) emission reduction and neutralization, it is essential to project C sequestered by forest ecosystems (FESs) and stored in harvested wood products (HWPs). It is also crucial to put these actions into a coherent framework of C accounting. Building on these steps, we show that during 2006–2020, the sector’s biomass and soil C sequestration reached 2.589 petagrams (Pg) and 1.275 Pg respectively, and its C storage in HWPs added 0.491 Pg. These outcomes could have offset 11.76% of the country’s cumulative C emissions. As China’s emissions pass their peak in this decade, the proportion of carbon offset by FESs and HWPs will likely decrease below 10.00%. During 2006–2060, however, FES biomass and soil C sequestration would be 7.574 and 3.730 Pg, and C storage in HWPs would be 1.709 Pg, even under conservative assumptions. These estimates could lead to an overall offset ratio of 14.72%. In addition to highlighting the relevance of pursuing more aggressive nature-based solutions, this study can serve as an example of C accounting and tracking toward meeting countries’ targets as specified in their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. Key policy insights China’s forest ecosystems and in-service wood products play an important role in removing and offsetting carbon (C) emissions. The forest sector actions are also cost-effective, especially if forest growth can be improved by adopting broad management practices. During the 2050s, these actions could more than offset the country’s total emissions, allowing it to achieve C neutrality earlier than originally planned. To enhance the efficiency and productivity of forestry, China needs to further restructure its institutional arrangements and public policies. To fully account for forest sector’s potentials, China must capture all possible C pools of the ecosystems, including in soil, urban trees/forests, and other trees outside of forests.