Abstract

Over 45 jurisdictions globally have implemented sweetened beverage taxes. Researchers and policymakers need to assess whether and how these taxes change beverage demand and supply, their intended and unanticipated health, economic and equity impacts. Lessons from such evaluations can maximise the policies’ success and impact on non-communicable disease prevention globally. We discuss key theoretical, design and methodological considerations to help policymakers, funders and researchers commission and conduct rigorous evaluations of these policies and related disease prevention efforts. We encourage involving the perspectives of various stakeholders on what evaluations are needed given the specific context, what data and methods are appropriate, readily available or can be collected within time and budget constraints. A logic model /conceptual system map of anticipated implications across sectors and scales should help identify optimal study design, analytical techniques and measures. These models should be updated when synthesising findings across diverse methods and integrating findings across subpopulations using similar methods.

Highlights

  • There is ample evidence showing that consumption of sweetened beverages is strongly and positively associated with the prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases [1,2,3] and certain cancers [4, 5], as well as all-cause mortality [6]

  • Rather than provide a review of the findings of existing evaluations [23, 24], we ask: what are the lessons we can learn from sweetened beverage tax evaluations that can help improve future evaluations and support NCD and obesity prevention efforts? To this end, we offer an overview of progress in the field and an analysis of key theoretical, design and methodological considerations, recognizing that it is unlikely that any single evaluation of sweetened beverage taxes will be fully comprehensive given data, resource and time constraints

  • Evaluation stages and considerations Because sweetened beverage tax policy development, legislation and implementation are events in complex adaptive systems, it is beneficial to take a logical, sequential and systemic approach to considering evaluation. This includes assessing the evaluability of the policy; theorizing the policy’s impacts across sectors and scales, as well as theorising both intended and unintended consequences from a public health perspective; identifying the optimal study design, analytical techniques, data and measures; and bringing the various components of work back together via interpretation, synthesis and integration

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Summary

Introduction

There is ample evidence showing that consumption of sweetened beverages is strongly and positively associated with the prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases [1,2,3] and certain cancers [4, 5], as well as all-cause mortality [6]. Consumption and outcomes are socio-economically patterned and lead to health inequalities [7] Consumption of these beverages is higher than recommended [8] and increasing, in lowand middle-income countries [7]. Ng et al BMC Public Health (2021) 21:1941 an abundance of academic studies, systematic reviews and meta-analyses [17,18,19,20,21] As these sweetened beverage taxes are passed and implemented [22], it is important to assess whether and in what ways the various forms of these policies contribute towards changing consumer demand and industry supply of beverages, their intended and unanticipated health, economic, equity and broader wellbeing impacts, and what improvements may be made to strengthen and maximise the their success.

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