Abstract
AbstractThis study evaluates the implicit safety level in hydrologic infrastructure design, performed in common practice with the calculation of the peak-flow frequency curve for high return periods (100<return period<10,000 years) through use of single-peak hyetographs in a semidistributed hydro-meteorological event-based model. Through consideration of two basins located in mainland Spain, the paper studies the effect on the peak-flow frequency curve of (1) the shape of the design hyetograph defined by the alternating blocks (AB) method or through applying a Monte Carlo (MC) procedure; (2) the catchment area (ranging from 140 to 1,800 km2); and (3) the extent of disaggregation in the hydro-meteorological model (varying from 14 to 66 subbasins). The effect on hydrologic safety was measured through using the ratio R=QmaxAB/QmaxMC, with QmaxAB, the peak flows obtained with the AB method and QmaxMC, the application of MC. The paper finds the following: (1) that the degree of safety decreases as the basin ...
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