How risk decision-makers interpret and use flood forecast information: assessing the Mississippi River Outlook email product

Abstract

While the National Weather Service and its River Forecast Centers and Weather Forecast Offices produce visuals, graphics, and outreach designed to support weather forecasts and warnings and inform decisions about natural resource management and emergency services, opportunities exist for risk communication scholarship to refine theory and promote best practices for communicating such information to the various stakeholders who need it. In September 2019, two focus groups were conducted with a sample (N = 14) of National Weather Service-Memphis’ core partners to gauge perceptions about how the Weather Forecast Office provides technical information about flood risk patterns, paying particular attention to evaluations of its Mississippi River Outlook product. Research findings demonstrated that core partners may benefit from targeting risk information depending on partners’ information needs and their technical knowledge/expertise. Similarly, the results suggested a need to offer context or interpretation for unique data points (e.g., gage tables, experimental forecasts, charts, and graphs) to successfully communicate important risk information and to clarify potential misunderstandings; this consideration was underscored by the finding that core partners tended to disseminate the Mississippi River Outlook product to others in the community (e.g., business owners; residents). These findings highlight the importance of audience testing in the development of risk communication and decision-making tools.