How reliable is the use of transect counts to assess the population of the New Forest Burnet moth (Zygaena vicae [D. & S.], 1775) (Lepidoptera: Zygaenidae) at its only British site in western Scotland

Abstract

The population of the New Forest burnet moth, Zygaena viciae, at its only UK site in western Scotland, was assessed between 1990 and 2019, using direct counts, standard transect counts and Mark/Release/Recapture (MRR). Data from eleven of these years, when reliable comparative transect counts and MRR population estimates were available, were analysed to answer the question as to whether the more economical transect counts provided a reliable estimate of the population size. Lin's Concordance Coefficient showed conclusively that transect counts do have a consistent relationship with the MRR population estimates. However, it was found that transect counts consistently under-estimate the MRR derived population estimates and that the scaling factor between them is best valued at ×5 (see Results). It can be concluded that, when resources are too limited to allow a full MRR population analysis, the more economical transect counts can trusted to indicate the relative size of the moth population.