How Propaganda Affects Public Opinion in China: Evidence from the First Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

ABSTRACT During a national crisis, can state propaganda shift public opinion, and if so, in what direction? Existing studies show that the effects of state propaganda on public opinion in China are mixed. Analysing data from an online survey experiment conducted during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, this article finds that the Chinese public responded positively to propaganda that promoted Xi Jinping’s leadership, when these messages included text as well as images that showed Xi being compassionate during his visit to Wuhan. However, when textual propaganda focused on familiar narratives, such as Xi’s leadership, international praise of China’s experience in fighting the virus, China’s efforts to send medical assistance to other countries, and praise for medical workers, it was largely ineffective in changing political opinions. These results suggest that visual components that evoke an emotional response of solidarity can increase government favourability in public opinion. At the same time, propaganda narratives that fail to address critical questions about a national crisis, including its severity and attribution, tend to be ineffective at persuading the public.