How price-responsive is residential retail electricity demand in the US?

Abstract

Using a panel data analysis of a newly developed sample of monthly data by state for January 2005 to December 2019, we estimate a series of error correction models for US residential electricity demand postulated to move with electricity price, natural gas price, income, and weather. Our key findings are as follows. First, the short-run own-price elasticity estimate is not statistically different from zero (p-value > 0.8). Second, the long-run own- and cross-price elasticity estimates are −0.054 (p-value = 0.000) and 0.019 (p-value = 0.000) under the double-log specification, smaller in size than the long-run own- and cross-price elasticity estimates of −0.120 (p-value = 0.000) and 0.069 (p-value = 0.000) under the linear demand specification. Third, price elasticity estimates have been shrinking in size over time. Fourth, erroneously ignoring the panel data's cross-sectional dependence tends to more than double the long-run price elasticity estimates. Fifth, mismatching the timing of price information's availability and consumption decision leads to anomalous price elasticity estimates. Finally, our new empirics' key takeaway of low price-responsiveness supports continuation of energy efficiency standards and demand-side management programs.