Abstract
Many investors rely on price paths to form beliefs about investment alternatives. In a controlled laboratory experiment we strip paths of potential relevant information by providing subjects with full information via a different channel. Our experiment is based on a simple static investment task. The results indicate that subjects are still influenced by informationally irrelevant paths and that this behavior cannot be simply attributed to a belief that patterns from the past will be resembled in the future. We extend a recently proposed model based on a CPT evaluation of price paths' implicit return distributions to accommodate our findings. Additionally, we identify reference point, loss aversion, trend, and spread as important path characteristics that determine how a path is evaluated. In a linear regression model we find support for the different impact of these asset characteristics for historical and simulated future price paths.
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