How price and non-price factors influence the market price of major carp: Findings from the dynamic ARDL approach

Abstract

Recently, fish prices in Bangladesh have been growing, particularly the market price of major carp, even though the factors that may be contributing to this trend are unexplored. Therefore, this study considers some price and non-price factors to explore the market price dynamics of major carp species in Bangladesh. To explore the factors impacting the market price of carp fish, we apply advanced time-series econometric modeling, such as the recently devised dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model using publicly available data on fish prices from 2005 M1 to 2021 M12. This period is attributed to the rapid transformation from mostly low-intensity farming to commercialization due to a rise in productivity and market price. Among the price factors, the findings demonstrate that the price of corn, soybean, and oilcake, and fisheries wage rate have a positive significant impact on fish price in both the short and long term. In addition, among the non-price drivers, GDP per capita, inflation rate, and fish consumption all have a significant positive influence on fish prices in the long run, whereas total production has a detrimental effect on fish prices in the long run. These results have significant policy ramifications for attaining the fish farmers' profit maximization and consumers' welfare maximization goals.