How people think about possibilities

Abstract

Hypothetical thinking is an extraordinary human ability that allows people to think beyond the facts of a situation to imagine alternative possibilities. I first consider how people understand factual conditionals, such as, ‘if there was an apple in the fruit bowl there was a banana’, then how they understand counterfactual conditionals, such as, ‘if Pearl had studied harder she would have passed the exam’, and then how they understand counterpossible conditionals, that is, conditionals about impossibilities, such as, ‘ if people were made of steel they would not bruise easily’. I discuss the theory that people understand conditionals by envisaging models of possibilities, and consider experimental evidence that corroborates its predictions for factual, counterfactual, and impossible conditionals.