How Negative Campaigning Influences Citizens’ Evaluations of Candidates and Likelihood of Voting

Abstract

Abstract The analysis in chapter 7 combines survey data from the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey with information about the airing and content of negative advertisements. It demonstrates that the relevance and civility of negative messages consistently influence people’s assessments of U.S. Senate candidates. The analysis shows that negative messages are persuasive when they focus on relevant topics and are delivered in an uncivil manner. These messages are most influential for people with less tolerance of negative campaigning. The relevance and civility of campaign messages also influence people’s likelihood of voting. When campaign messages are focused on irrelevant topics and delivered in an uncivil manner (mudslinging), people’s willingness to vote declines. Finally, the impact of uncivil and irrelevant messages on political participation is conditioned by people’s level of tolerance for negativity. That is, people with less tolerance of negativity are more influenced by changing levels of mudslinging.