How much will large-scale production of cell-cultured meat cost?

Abstract

Cell-cultured meat has received favorable press and is being touted as a replacement for the entire livestock industry. The objective of the study was to determine what it will cost to produce cell-cultured meat in a large-scale ($60 million) production facility that produces 540,000 kg of product annually. Many of the funders behind this industry hope to reduce the environmental and land impacts of our current agricultural system. Although the initial goal is to use stem cells that must be replenished directly from animals, many firms want to develop cell lines that allow them to be independent of animals in the future. The technologies used to produce cell-cultured meat are continuously being improved, so there is still much uncertainty on what the final product will cost. Previous research has focused primarily on the cost of the cell-culture medium—a liquid or gel designed to support the growth of cells—rather than other potentially important costs. We estimate startup, production, employment, and transportation costs in addition to available cell-culture medium costs and expected output per batch to create a full-detailed enterprise budget. Cost estimates are calculated using (1) cell-cultured bioprocess information from published literature; (2) bioreactor and cold storage infrastructure information from engineers; and (3) prices and quantities of other relevant costs obtained from public and private sources. Results suggest that the cell-cultured meat industry has a long way to go before it can operate and make an acceptable return on investment. Assuming that technology will be developed to reduce the cost of the medium including growth hormone substitutes and buying ingredients in bulk, 1 kg of cell-cultured meat is estimated to cost $63/kg to produce in a large-scale facility. The three major costs of production are the cell-culture medium, bioreactors, and labor. These costs make up over 80% of the overall cost of production. • The cost to produce cell-cultured meat is projected for a large-scale plant. • Cost is projected assuming huge technological advances in the cell-culture medium. • The wholesale cost of cell-cultured meat is optimistically projected to be as low as $63/kg. • A retail price of $18 or more for a 0.14 kg hamburger will impede consumer adoption. • Cell-cultured meat may eventually be competitive as a niche product.