How Much of Monthly Subsurface Temperature Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Can Be Recovered by the Specification of Sea Surface Temperatures?

Abstract

Abstract The focus of the analysis is to investigate the question to what extent the specification of sea surface temperature (SST) in coupled model integration can impart realistic evolution of subsurface ocean temperature in the equatorial tropical Pacific. In the context of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, the analysis is of importance from two aspects: such a system can be considered as a simple coupled ocean data assimilation system that can provide ocean initial conditions; and what additional components of the ocean observing system may be crucial for skillful ENSO prediction. The results indicate that coupled model integration where SST is continuously nudged toward the observed state can generate a realistic evolution of subsurface ocean temperature. The evolution of slow variability related to ENSO, in particular, has a good resemblance against the observational counterpart. The realism of subsurface ocean temperature variability is highest near the date line and least in the far eastern Pacific where the thermocline is shallowest. The results are also discussed in the context of ocean observing system requirements for ENSO prediction.