How much longer would men work if there were no employment dislocation? Estimates from cause-elimination work life tables

Abstract

The impact of labor demand on the decline in labor force participation of older males too young to qualify for Social Security is often acknowledged but seldom measured or incorporated into models of retirement. Using data from Current Population Survey March Demographic files and the periodic employment dislocation supplements, a series of cause-eliminated increment–decrement work life tables captures the impact of employment dislocation and early (before age 65) pension receipt on the employment of older males in a simple overall summary measure: expected work life. Employment dislocation and being offered an early pension are two of the most obvious manifestations of shifts in labor demand that can affect the labor force withdrawal of older males. Consistent with earlier research, I find early pension receipt to be an important factor in early labor force withdrawal but, in addition, employment dislocation has a sizeable direct impact on labor force participation. The findings suggest that employment dislocation and other, yet unmeasured, labor demand factors need to be incorporated into models of retirement.