How much did the return of rural migrant labor affect China's national economy?

Abstract

Purpose – What this paper aims to tackle is how much did the return of rural migrant labor during the financial crisis affect China's GDP and the growth rate of the national economy. Design/methodology/approach – This paper constructs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and uses data of China's 2007 Input-Output Table to analyze the impact of the return of rural migrant labor on China's economy during the financial crisis. Findings – The results show that the return of rural migrant labor during the financial crisis had substantial impacts on China's economy. The national GDP decreased by about 0.499-1.463 percent, mainly due to the number of rural labor who migrated from the non-agricultural sector to agriculture. Of the major sectors of economy, the manufacturing, construction and other services sectors were the most affected. Originality/value – This paper assesses the impacts of return of rural migrant labor during the financial crisis on China's GDP and the growth rate of the national economy.