How might a Universal Basic Income influence UK mental health? A microsimulation modelling study

Abstract

Abstract Background Universal Basic Income (UBI) may improve mental health (MH), but no studies have trialled or modelled UBI in whole populations. We simulated the MH effects of UBI on UK working-age adults. Methods Adults aged 25-64 were simulated from 2022-26 with the SimPaths microsimulation model, using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. SimPaths models short-term MH effects of UK tax/benefit policies via income, poverty and employment transitions. Three counterfactual UBI scenarios were modelled from 2023: ‘Partial’ (value equivalent to existing benefits), ‘Full’ (equivalent to the UK Minimum Income Standard) and ‘Full+’ (retained some means-tested benefits). Likely common mental disorder (CMD) was measured using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12, score ≥4) and stratified by gender, education, and household structure. Simulations were run 1,000 times to generate 95% uncertainty intervals. Sensitivity analyses relaxed SimPaths assumptions about reduced employment resulting from Full/Full+ UBI. Results Partial UBI had little impact on poverty, employment or MH. Full UBI scenarios practically eradicated poverty, but decreased employment. Full+ UBI increased CMD prevalence by 0.38% points (0.13-0.69), equivalent to 157,951 additional CMD cases (54,036-286,805); effects were largest for men (0.63% [0.31-1.01]) and those with children (0.64% [0.18-1.14]). In our sensitivity analysis assuming minimal UBI-related employment impacts, CMD prevalence instead fell by 0.27% (-0.49, -0.05), a reduction of 112,228 cases (20,783-203,673); effects were largest for women (-0.32% [-0.65, 0.00]), those without children (-0.40 [-0.68, -0.15]) and those with least education (-0.42% [-0.97, 0.15]). MH effects waned by 2026 in all modelled scenarios. Conclusions UBI has potential to improve short-term population MH by reducing poverty, but impacts may be highly contingent on whether individuals choose to remain in employment following its introduction. Key messages • A UBI meeting living costs may slightly improve population mental health if people continue working after receiving the benefit, especially for women, the least educated, and those without children. • In a ‘worst-case scenario’, where the increased income led to maximal reductions in employment, UBI might instead worsen short-term mental health, especially for men and those with children.