How many supernovae are we missing at high redshift?

Abstract

Near-infrared and radio searches for core-collapse supernovae (CC SNe) in the local universe have shown that the vast majority of the events occurring in massive starburst are missed by the current optical searches as they explode in very dusty environments. Recent infrared observations have shown that the fraction of star formation activity that takes place in very luminous dusty starbursts sharply increases with redshift and becomes the dominant star formation component at z 0.5. As a consequence, an increasing fraction of SNe are expected to be missed by high-redshift optical searches. We estimate that 5‐10 per cent of the local CC SNe are out of reach of the optical searches. The fraction of missing events rises sharply towards z = 1, when about 30 per cent of the CC SNe will be undetected. At z = 2 the missing fraction will be about 60 per cent. Correspondingly, for Type Ia SNe, our computations provide missing fractions of 15 per cent at z = 1 and 35 per cent at z = 2. Such large corrections are crucially important to compare the observed SN rate with the expectations from the evolution of the cosmic star formation history, and to design the future SN searches at high redshifts.