How many radiologists will be needed in the years 2000 and 2010? Projections based on estimates of future supply and demand.

Abstract

Predicting the appropriate number of diagnostic radiologists needed in the United States for the next decade is an important but difficult task. Previous attempts have been characterized by incomplete data, conflicting results, and ultimately, as the future revealed itself, erroneous conclusions [1-3]. Nonetheless, with major changes expected in health care, estimation of physician workforce needs is perhaps more critical than ever before. In this study, both the future supply of diagnostic radiologists and the demand for diagnostic radiology services in the United States were analyzed. Projected supply of diagnostic radiologists was calculated by using data about the number presently in practice, the current number of radiology residents, and the rate at which diagnostic radiologists leave the profession through either retirement or death. Demand for radiologic services in the future was evaluated by estimating effects of possible changes in population and demography, health care reform, technology, universal health insurance, and women in radiology.