How Long can a Technological Civilization Survive?

Abstract

Technological civilizations are a relatively new invention, and consequently, we do not know their life spans. Such a civilization uses nature for their basic needs, but it invents advanced technologies for innumerable purposes. These technologies allow improvements to ancient activities such as building, agriculture, forestry and mining, now conducted using more efficient, but also more polluting methods. Recent developments dealing with manufacturing, transportation, the generation of energy and energy usage have also become increasingly dependent on technology. Finally, technology has allowed totally new approaches to disciplines such as computing, healthcare, commerce and warfare. With the development of these technologies often comes the wishful thinking that our problems and challenges can be solved through the use of the existing and novel technologies. This optimism in part results because some people do not understand the limitations of scientific and technological fixes. Moreover, they do not recognize the fact that each new technology creates new problems that are often unrecognizable for years or even decades after their advent. The excessive and growing human population, accompanied by global climate change and depletion of renewable resources, represent primary problems. It is possible that the solutions to these problems can be facilitated by technological advances, but technological fixes are often limited, for example, by the costs of the technologies. The risks involved, who owns a technology and how it will be used are considered by only a few insightful individuals whose opinions are often neglected by a misleadingly optimistic public that trusts science and technology to solve its problems. Modern methods of birth control have the potential to avert the current population crisis. Moreover, the cost is not prohibitive; effective worldwide birth control and abortion services have been estimated to cost no more than 40 billion dollars per year. However, technology alone never solves problems; solutions first require proper values and attitudes, and then they depend on an adequate investment of time, effort and money. Before the resolution of any other problems can be beneficial in the long run, the problem of our population must be solved. Our civilization has been using advanced technologies for only about 100 years. We have collided with the dimension of time whereupon nature depends. We have killed a major fraction of the ocean’s coral reefs and depleted fish stocks to a small fraction of preexploitation levels. Even without further destruction, it takes centuries to restore conditions. Deforestation, erosion, soil and nutrient depletion have destroyed much of our forests and natural terrestrial habitats, blocking regenerating. We have sadly depleted our Water Air Soil Pollut (2008) 195:1–2 DOI 10.1007/s11270-006-9244-5