Abstract

ABSTRACT The Covid-19 pandemic signaled an alert to all countries about controlling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to have fewer infected individuals, causing less stress to all health systems, and saving lives. As a result, multiple governments, including national and local levels of government, went through several degrees of social distancing measures. The decision process regarding the flexibilization of social distancing measures requires evidence of incidence decrease, available capacity in the health systems to absorb eventual epidemic waves, and serological prevalence studies designed to estimate the proportion of individuals with antibody protection. The trend criterium usually given by the effective reproduction number might be misguided if there are significant delays for reporting cases. For instance, the reproduction number for Niterói, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, went down from a value of approximately 3 to little more than 1. Even with all measures, the reproduction number did not get below R<1, which would demonstrate a more controlled scenario. Finally, a prediction method permits adjusting the notification delay and analyzing the current status of the epidemics.

Highlights

  • The arrival of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil proved to be a challenge for health surveillance due to insufficient testing, varying degrees of preparedness in surveillance and health system capacity, health inequities displaying in population vulnerabilities, among other factors

  • The impact mitigation of the Covid-19 pandemic led to various measures regarding social distancing, as well as better practices on hygiene, in order to reduce the number of cases in the epidemic peak and to reduce the transmission intensity[1]

  • Brazilian health surveillance relies on database systems that have national coverage and are flexible to be handled by various statistical softwares, including open systems

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Summary

Introduction

The arrival of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil proved to be a challenge for health surveillance due to insufficient testing, varying degrees of preparedness in surveillance and health system capacity, health inequities displaying in population vulnerabilities, among other factors. Hardship in the effort for sustaining population isolation for a long time requires objective criteria for continuous evaluation on returning to a new normal of collective activities

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