Abstract

Patterns of biodiversity predicted by the neutral theory rely on a simple phenomenological model of speciation. To further investigate the effect of speciation on neutral biodiversity, we analyze a spatially explicit neutral model based on population genetics. We define the metacommunity as a system of populations exchanging migrants, and we use this framework to introduce speciation with little or no gene flow (allopatric and parapatric speciation). We find that with realistic mutation rates, our metacommunity model driven by neutral processes cannot support more than a few species. Adding natural selection in the population genetics of speciation increases the number of species in the metacommunity, but the level of diversity found in the Barro Colorado Island is difficult to reach.

Highlights

  • How patterns of biodiversity arise through ecological and evolutionary processes is a central question in modern ecology (Fussmann et al 2007; Johnson and Stinchcombe 2007)

  • We introduce a neutral theory of biodiversity with a speciation model derived from population genetics

  • We find that reducing the average migration rate increases the speciation rate, but it increases the number of extinctions

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Summary

Introduction

How patterns of biodiversity arise through ecological and evolutionary processes is a central question in modern ecology (Fussmann et al 2007; Johnson and Stinchcombe 2007). According to Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity (NTB), patterns of biodiversity such as species-abundance distributions can be explained by the balance between speciation, dispersal, and random extinction (Hubbell 2001; Rosindell et al 2011). The neutral theory provides a good fit to species distribution curves (Hubbell 2001) and has been extended in several ways (Volkov et al 2005; de Aguiar et al 2009; Haegeman and Etienne 2009; Rosindell et al 2010). We introduce a neutral theory of biodiversity with a speciation model derived from population genetics. Allopatric speciation occurs when the new species originates from a geographically isolated population. Parapatric speciation covers the middle ground between these two extremes (Gavrilets 2003)

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