Abstract
Amid the energy reform efforts by the Taiwan government, residential energy demand continues to face an escalating trend every year. This indicates the phenomenon of the energy efficiency gap. One of the factors that control the energy efficiency gap is the rebound effect. The rebound effect is related to the increase in energy consumption through efforts to reduce the use of energy itself. This can be due to the low cost of usage that causes a person to be encouraged to use more energy. This study aims to estimate the magnitude of the direct rebound effect of household electricity consumption in Taiwan using monthly time series data from January 1998 to December 2018 and to implement the artificial neural network (ANN) as an alternative approach to measure the direct rebound effect. Based on the simulation results, the direct rebound effect magnitude for household electricity consumption in Taiwan is in the range of 11.17% to 21.95%. GDP growth is the most important input in the model. Additionally, population growth and climate change are also critical factors and have significant implications in the model.
Highlights
In recent years Taiwan’s economic growth has been faced with increasing uncertainty, especially related to the condition of the manufacturing industry caused by soaring energy prices because of the limited availability of natural energy in Taiwan, which has led to high energy import figures (Hong and Tsai, 2018)
artificial neural network (ANN) is a mathematical model that consists of an interconnected group of neurons and processes information using a computingbased connection
The selection of the neural network model is one of the important stages before deciding to continue to the step. The selection of this model can be provided in various ways, in this study the determination of the model is prepared by testing on several models to find the minimum Mean Square Error (MSE) value of each of the models tested previously
Summary
In recent years Taiwan’s economic growth has been faced with increasing uncertainty, especially related to the condition of the manufacturing industry caused by soaring energy prices because of the limited availability of natural energy in Taiwan, which has led to high energy import figures (Hong and Tsai, 2018). If we look at the data over the past few years, total domestic consumption has a rapid increase from 72,186 103KLOE in 2003 to 87,318 103KLOE in 2018 or an increase of 21%. This increase can be seen by the sector, where energy consumption for transportation and residential continues to increases. Regardless, as the picture above shows, there is an indication of an energy-efficiency gap in Taiwan
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