How knowledge and uncertainty affect strategic international business investment decisions: Implications for cross-border mergers and acquisitions

Abstract

Changes in country-level and global economic conditions create numerous challenges for firms expanding internationally. Country-level changes such as volatility in GDP growth, increasing regulations, and/or inflation may influence temporal periods of static or declining markets and often drive an inward contraction of focus. Conversely, global-level changes such as expanding markets often drive an outward expansion of focus as firms adjust to opportunities created by changing conditions. However, given increasing technological interconnectedness and global economic interdependencies, firms may better leverage their knowledge of such factors to improve international business investment decisions. We hypothesize how firms seeking international expansion adjust based on changes in their environment through both the frequency and value of their cross-border M&A (CB M&A) activity. Our findings from a sample of pre- and post-CB M&A activity using data on the 2008–2009 financial crisis outline how firms’ strategic international business decisions incorporate knowledge and uncertainty regarding country and global economic fluctuations.