How is traffic safety affected by changes in traffic speeds following speed limit increases? An evaluation with probe vehicle data

Abstract

Maximum speed limits continue to be an important policy issue. Research has consistently shown speeds to increase following speed limit increases. These increases have also generally coincided with increases in both the frequency and severity of crashes. However, research has been more limited as to the direct relationship between speed and safety. To this end, the present study evaluates the effects of increasing speed limits on the safety of rural limited access freeways while accounting for contemporaneous changes in the speed profiles of these same roadways. The speed limit increases in Michigan occurred between May 1 and June 12 of 2017, when the maximum speed limits were increased from 70 to 75 mph on approximately 600 miles of freeways. The maximum speed limits for trucks were also increased from 60 to 65 mph on all freeways state-wide at this same time. Speed data were obtained for the Michigan rural freeway network through probe vehicles. These data are merged with pertinent roadway data, as well as police-reported crash data at various levels of injury severity. The impacts of the speed limit increase on safety were evaluated by estimating random effects negative binomial models as part of a case-control before-after study design. The results show that the locations where the speed limits were increased experienced a 5% increase in crashes, while a marginal reduction in crashes was observed where speed limits did not increase. Interestingly, mean speeds were found to be negatively associated with crash frequency, while the standard deviation of speed was found to exhibit a positive relationship. Several site-specific characteristics were also found to be strong predictors of crash frequency. The results provide important insights into the nature of the relationship between speed and safety and will help to guide subsequent speed limit policy decisions.