How is the impact of climate change on river flow regimes related to the impact on mean annual runoff? A global-scale analysis

Abstract

To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater resources, change in mean annual runoff (MAR) is only a first indicator. In addition, it is necessary to analyze changes of river flow regimes, i.e. changes in the temporal dynamics of river discharge, as these are important for the well-being of humans (e.g. with respect to water supply) and freshwater-dependent biota (e.g. with respect to habitat availability). Therefore, we investigated, in a global-scale hydrological modeling study, the relation between climate-induced changes of MAR and changes of a number of river flow regime indicators, including mean river discharge, statistical low and high flows, and mean seasonal discharge. In addition, we identified, for the first time at the global scale, where flow regime shifts from perennial to intermittent flow regimes (or vice versa) may occur due to climate change. Climate-induced changes of all considered river flow regime indicators (except seasonal river flow changes) broadly follow the spatial pattern of MAR changes. The differences among the computed changes of MAR due to the application of the two climate models are larger than the differences between the change of MAR and the change of the diverse river flow indicators for one climate model. At the sub-basin and grid cell scales, however, there are significant differences between the changes of MAR, mean annual river discharge, and low and high flows. Low flows are projected to be more than halved by the 2050s in almost twice the area as compared to MAR. Similarly, northern hemisphere summer flows decrease more strongly than MAR. Differences between the high emissions scenario A2 (with emissions of 25 Gt C yr−1 in the 2050s) and the low emissions scenario B2 (16 Gt C yr−1) are generally small as compared to the differences due to the two climate models. The benefits of avoided emissions are, however, significant in those areas where flows are projected to be more than halved due to climate change. If emissions were constrained to the B2 scenario, the area with ecologically relevant flow regime shifts would be reduced to 5.4%–6.7% of the global land area as compared to 6.3%–7.0% in A2. In particular, under the B2 scenario, fewer rivers will change from perennial to intermittent (or transitional) river flows.