Abstract
The trade dispute between China and the United States (US) since 2018 and the global COVID-19 pandemic since 2020 has significantly impacted China’s economic development. As China’s energy sources heavily depend on imports, its economic viability is becoming more and more risky. This study proposes a novel conceptual framework, involving macroeconomic, industrial and geopolitical factors, to evaluate China’s energy security as a major player in the trade dispute. This study also provides a comprehensive strategy for policymakers to make better decisions on reforming renewable energy patterns to guarantee energy security and achieve geopolitical advantages. The PESTEL (political, economic, social, technical, environmental and legislative) and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analytical methods are applied to evaluate the factors and attributes of China’s energy development and energy security in the current background. The China-US bipartite game reciprocity model and the QSPM (Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix) analysis are conducted to assess which energy security strategy and policy are more suitable to deal with China-US trade dispute. To enhance energy security, China should diversify its energy supply chain, develop new sources of energy supply, advance the shale gas technology, popularise cleaner power-generation plants, increase nuclear-energy safety, introduce energy-conservation measures, promote alternative-energy vehicles, engage in international energy diplomacy, and rebuild international energy transaction and settlement systems.
Highlights
Over the last two decades, China’s energy needs have skyrocketed because of industrialization and urbanization
Under the background of the China-United States (US) trade dispute and COVID-19 pandemic, China’s energy needs will probably decrease but the vulnerability of energy supply will increase at the same time
We develop qualitative and quantitative analysis methods based on PESTEL, SWOT, and QSPM (Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix) to assess the implications of China’s energy security strategies and policies
Summary
Over the last two decades, China’s energy needs have skyrocketed because of industrialization and urbanization. Securing energy supplies is crucial to maintain China’s economic growth, social peace, and political stability [2]. As China’s major economic mode has been evolving into the third industry or the service sector, it should make sure a more sustainable supply of cleaner and safer energy. Under the background of the China-US trade dispute and COVID-19 pandemic, China’s energy needs will probably decrease but the vulnerability of energy supply will increase at the same time. We develop qualitative and quantitative analysis methods based on PESTEL (political, economic, social, technical, environmental and legislative), SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats), and QSPM (Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix) to assess the implications of China’s energy security strategies and policies. We propose insightful suggestions on the reform of energy policies and patterns
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