How human activities affect and reduce ecological sensitivity under climate change: Case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Abstract

Ecological sensitivity (ES) shows the adaptability of ecosystem. As anthropogenic activities and climatic change intensify, they affect ES individually and interactively. Thus, clarifying the effects of anthropogenic activities and climatic change on ES, and grading them to improve them, is beneficial for improving the ecological resilience and sustainable development of the region. However, few studies focus on the effects of climate-anthropogenic interactions on ES. According to data from 130 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), this study constructs index systems of ES, anthropogenic activities and climate change. And response surface methodology (RSM) is utilized to analyze the effects of factors acting alone and interacting on ES, as well as the ecological improvement paths under different climatic condition. The results manifest that: (1) From years 2001–2021, the ES of the YREB fluctuates in time, increasing by 2.2%, due to declining biological abundance and water network density. Spatially, it displays a spatial distribution of “high in the north and low in the south.” In 2021, the percentages of cities in the YREB with relatively high and high sensitivity reach nearly 50%. (2) Among the climatic and anthropogenic factors, the proportions of cities where urbanization, advanced industrial structure, precipitation and temperature factors individually significantly affected ES is 67.7%, 63.1%, 56.2% and 54.6%, respectively, suggesting that all these factors have a significant impact on ES in most of the YREB. The proportion of negative interaction effects in the significant interaction between anthropogenic and climatic factors is 78.6%, indicating that most of the climatic factors have an inverse role in the anthropogenic effect on ES. (3) Improvement paths for areas with high sensitivity (27 cities) are found by RSM. A total of 24 cities can reduce ES by harmonizing anthropogenic factors under different climatic conditions. Meanwhile, 17 cities should take targeted measures in the light of climate change. This study proposes relevant recommendations for zoning governance, which is expected to provide enlightening opinions for the field of regional ecological governance. Meanwhile, it provides ideas for the in-depth application of RSM in the ecological field.