Abstract
BackgroundThere is a paucity of information on secular trends in the age-related process by which people develop overweight or obesity. Utilizing longitudinal data in the United Kingdom birth cohort studies, we investigated shifts over the past nearly 70 years in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and development of overweight or obesity across childhood and adulthood.Methods and FindingsThe sample comprised 56,632 participants with 273,843 BMI observations in the 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; ages 2–64 years), 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; 7–50), 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS; 10–42), 1991 Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; 7–18), or 2001 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS; 3–11). Growth references showed a secular trend toward positive skewing of the BMI distribution at younger ages. During childhood, the 50th centiles for all studies lay in the middle of the International Obesity Task Force normal weight range, but during adulthood, the age when a 50th centile first entered the overweight range (i.e., 25–29.9 kg/m2) decreased across NSHD, NCDS, and BCS from 41 to 33 to 30 years in males and 48 to 44 to 41 years in females. Trajectories of overweight or obesity showed that more recently born cohorts developed greater probabilities of overweight or obesity at younger ages. Overweight or obesity became more probable in NCDS than NSHD in early adulthood, but more probable in BCS than NCDS and NSHD in adolescence, for example. By age 10 years, the estimated probabilities of overweight or obesity in cohorts born after the 1980s were 2–3 times greater than those born before the 1980s (e.g., 0.229 [95% CI 0.219–0.240] in MCS males; 0.071 [0.065–0.078] in NSHD males). It was not possible to (1) model separate trajectories for overweight and obesity, because there were few obesity cases at young ages in the earliest-born cohorts, or (2) consider ethnic minority groups. The end date for analyses was August 2014.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate how younger generations are likely to accumulate greater exposure to overweight or obesity throughout their lives and, thus, increased risk for chronic health conditions such as coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In the absence of effective intervention, overweight and obesity will have severe public health consequences in decades to come.
Highlights
The obesity epidemic is a daunting public health threat, even in high-income countries with good infrastructure for education and health care
Our results demonstrate how younger generations are likely to accumulate greater exposure to overweight or obesity throughout their lives and, increased risk for chronic health conditions such as coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus
A similar strategy was used in the 1970 British Cohort Study (1970 BCS), which is based on 17,287 people born in one week in April 1970, with the addition of 1,814 individuals who were (1) born in Northern Ireland and included only in the birth sweep, (2) immigrants who were incorporated into the study in childhood, or (3) never took part in any sweep [37]
Summary
The obesity epidemic is a daunting public health threat, even in high-income countries with good infrastructure for education and health care. The global prevalence of obesity (the proportion of the world's population that is obese) has more than doubled since 1980; 13% of the adult population, or 0.6 billion people, are classified as obese, while an additional 1.3 billion adults are overweight Both classifications are determined by body mass index (BMI), which is calculated by dividing a person's weight in kilograms by the square of their height in meters. In the United Kingdom, studies report that roughly one quarter of adults are obese, and a further third or more are overweight This “obesity epidemic” extends to children; according to the National Child Measurement Programme for England (NCMP), about 9% of 4–5-year-olds and 19% of 10–11-year-olds were obese in 2013. The UK has not seen the improvements in child and young adult mortality seen in comparable European states
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
