How Good Is Your Rule of Thumb? Validating Male-to-Female Case Ratio as a Proxy for Men Who Have Sex With Men Involvement in N. gonorrhoeae Incidence at the County Level.

Abstract

Lacking information on men who have sex with men (MSM) for most reported cases, sexually transmitted disease (STD) programs in the United States have used crude measures such as male-to-female case ratios (MFCR) as a rule of thumb to gauge MSM involvement at the local level, primarily with respect to syphilis cases in the past. Suitability of this measure for gonorrhea incidence has not previously been investigated. A random sample of gonorrhea cases reported from January 2010 through June 2013 were interviewed in selected counties participating in the STD Surveillance Network to obtain gender of sex partners and history of transactional sex. Weighted estimates of proportion of cases among MSM and proportion reporting transactional sex were developed; correlation between MFCR and proportion MSM was assessed. Male-to-female case ratio ranged from 0.66 to 8.7, and the proportion of cases occurring among MSM varied from 2.5% to 62.3%. The MFCR was strongly correlated with proportion of cases among MSM after controlling for transactional sex (Pearson partial r = 0.754, P < 0.0001). Male-to-female case ratio for gonorrhea at the county level is a reliable proxy measure indicating MSM involvement in gonorrhea case incidence and should be used by STD programs to tailor their programmatic mix to include MSM-specific interventions.