How Global Jihad Relocalises and Where it Leads. The Case of HTS, the Former AQ Franchise in Syria

Jerome Drevon,Patrick Haenni

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3796931

Abstract

The territories ruled by the Syrian opposition are being reorganised. The leaderless revolution has given way to a seizure of power by vanguardist and ideological organisations, be it the PYD in the northeast or HTS, the former local branch of AQ, in Idlib. However, these organisations cannot resist the regime’s military threat to reconquer the territories or the Turkish intervention by themselves. They need to manage the internationalisation of the conflict to protect themselves and find space in the broader strategic game around Syria. This is the strategy of HTS. After emerging from the matrix of AQ's global jihad, since 2017 HTS has sought to ‘institutionalise’ the revolution by imposing its military hegemony and full control of the institutions of local governance. The group has thus marginalised the revolutionary milieu, other Islamists and the threat posed by AQ supporters and IS cells in Idlib. HTS’s domination was followed by a policy of gradual opening and mainstreamisation. The group has had to open up to local communities and make concessions, especially in the religious sphere. HTS is seeking international acceptance with the development of a strategic partnership with Turkey and desires to open dialogue with Western countries. Overall, HTS has transformed from formerly being a salafi jihadi organisation into having a new mainstream approach to political Islam.

Highlights

Undesired Winners in Search of ‘Truce Politics’“The revolution, like Saturn, devours its own children,” said Georg Büchner.[1]
The institutionalisation of religious leadership under the banner of a High Council of Fatwa is intended to undermine the authority of the global salafi jihadi thinkers and dilute the influence of the remaining hardliners inside: “we made sure we invited everyone: sufis, ash‘ari, shaykhs linked to other factions
“The only way to handle global jihadis is to rely on local ones,” remarked without irony a Syrian researcher specialising in Salafism.[181]

Summary

Introduction

Undesired Winners in Search of ‘Truce Politics’“The revolution, like Saturn, devours its own children,” said Georg Büchner.[1]. Each group has imposed its control and institutionalised the insurrectionary dynamic according to its ideological and organisational leanings. It is certainly based on a “confiscation of the revolution,” as their detractors claim.[2] But it would be wrong to think only in terms of revolution hijacking. These groups’ interactions with their local revolutionary contexts and geostrategic environments – regional and international – have profoundly transformed them too. Far from being a mere academic exercise, an analysis of these interactions is rich in lessons for policymaking

Objectives

Discussion

Conclusion