How Fast Is Europe Getting Old? Analysis of Dynamics Applying the Spatial Shift–Share Approach

Elżbieta Antczak,Karolina Lewandowska-Gwarda

doi:10.3390/su11205661

Abstract

In this article, we analyzed the dynamics of the population aging process in Europe. The study was conducted on the basis of statistical data on the number of people aged 65 and above per 1000 of the population in 32 European countries in the years 1991–2018. The analyses also took into account the structure of the population by gender in five age groups: 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, and 85 and above. An extensive analysis of the rate of changes in the magnitude of the phenomenon was carried out, which gave an answer to the question about how quickly Europe is aging. We applied the spatial dynamic shift–share method. The spatial variant of the method allowed, among others, indicating countries where the pace of population aging in a specific age group was faster/slower than in locations neighboring the examined country. Specific regions characterized by the fastest population aging were also indicated, and shares of structural and sectoral factors of the changes were estimated. Furthermore, based on the values of local competitiveness indicators, regions were identified where the aging of the population decelerated or accelerated the phenomenon in neighboring countries in the study period.

Highlights

Aging or greying of the population is a process characterized by the increasing share of older people (65 and over) in the population, which causes a permanent change in the age structure of the population
In the years 1991–2018, the number of people aged 65 and above per 1000 of the population in the 32 European analyzed countries increased in total by 37%
The study results indicate that faster aging of the population in the abovementioned countries was conditioned by the specific dynamics of population changes in individual age groups, compared to the pace of sectoral changes in neighboring units

Summary

Introduction

Aging or greying of the population is a process characterized by the increasing share of older people (65 and over) in the population, which causes a permanent change in the age structure of the population. According to forecasts presented by the European Commission, this will rise to 29% in 2070, while the share of the working-age population (aged 15–64) will decline from 64.7% to 56%. The main determinants of those processes are higher life expectancy at birth, which is forecast to rise from 81 in 2018 to 90.3 in 2070, and decreased fertility among European populations [4]. Such a prospect constitutes a serious challenge to countries, because it forces changes and adjustments in almost every sphere of state activity—labor market, demand for goods and services, urban planning, infrastructure development, etc. Economies have to prepare for increasing fiscal costs linked to pensions, healthcare, and long-term care

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Results

Conclusion